Update on the 2/16 mystery

A quick update on the 2/16 mystery from my last post...

NO CLUE. No one knows. Indeed some 2/16/06 people did receive referrals in a separate batch from the latest 2/10-2/15/06 batch. But not all 2/16 people received referrals. Apparently, none of the agencies know what it means and the CCAA is not offering explanation.

My guess is that they were sent ahead in a rare CCAA "oops" moment. The CCAA never issues partial LID days. That is, they match all the baby dossiers they have to parents each month, but they will only send referrals through the latest date that they were able to complete in its entirety. Since it is highly unlikely that there would be exactly enough baby dossiers to match through an exact date, it is likely that there are babies matched to parents each batch that are "held back" to be sent with the full date in the next batch. I think those referrals were accidentally mailed out ahead of the next batch. Anyway, that's my guess. So, I don't think we're any further ahead really, but it's GREAT that those kiddos will be with Mom and Dad faster than if they were sent with the next official batch and that those families got such an unexpected surprise!

So, bottom line, still thinking beginning of December!

Adoption Update

The CCAA's monthly batch of referrals matched families logged-in (LID) through 02-15-06. Again, we are LID 02-23-06... Getting closer! China Adoption Forecast (www.chinaadoptionforecast.com) is now predicting:

Our prediction for LID 2006-02-23:

China has 8 days of dossiers to be processed before they get to your dossier. China currently processes about 6.1 days of dossiers each month.

Our best guess: 2008-11-19

Since China generally sends out referrals in a batch about once per month, your referral date could easily vary +/- one month depending on whether you just get included or just get missed in a particular batch.

So this doesn't change our guess that our referral will be here end of November/beginning of December.

BUT...some drama popped up on Rumor Queen (http://chinaadopttalk.com/) tonight. (For those who don't follow the China adoption community, RQ is the place we all go to find out what is going on. This amazing, anonymous person referred to as 'RQ' gathers and interprets tons of data and acts as a central point for all things China adoption via her blog. Without RQ, the past 3 years would have been much more difficult.)

ANYWAY, tonight this post pops up on RQ...

Another batch? October 8th, 2008
A few people with 2/16 LID’s are reporting that their agency says their referral is on the way. Anyone else hearing this? Anyone with a LID beyond the 16th?

Ummmmm....2/16 people getting referrals after the CCAA just stated Monday that they got through 2/15?!?! What does this mean? NO CLUE.

But it may mean we're even closer...stay tuned!